Saturday, December 08, 2012

December 4


Walking downtown, through West Park, to a former co-worker's baby shower.

It wasn't raining at the time, but everything was wet.

Trees reflected by wet asphalt.

Trees reflected in the pond, with boardwalk.

It was very nice to have a chance to chat with so many of my former colleagues.  I see my particular friends, fairly often, but was friendly with the rest of them, too, and I hadn't talked to most of them in quite a while.

Some of them took a class from Coursera on user-interface design.  Unfortunately, it wasn't nearly as good as Model Thinking or Think Again, and only one of them stuck it out and passed the class.  I always say good things about my two classes.  Maybe one (or more) of my friends will try one of the good classes.

I mentioned that, of the people who attempted to predict the results of the Presidential election, those who used models did far better than those who "went by their gut."  (See the pundit's dartboard.....)  The guy who was my most recent boss said "They can model an election, but they can't model the stock market!"  I told him what we learned about the stock market -- now that communication is instantaneous, and people can buy stocks immediately to reflect today's news, today's market accurately reflects all of the info that is known today.  Tomorrow's market will react to tomorrow's news, and so is utterly unpredictable (because if tomorrow's news is known, then it's today's news, and the market has already reacted....).  (Ed. note -- I found the prev disconcerting, but I believe it is true.)  Therefore, all you can do is buy index funds, diversify, and hope to do as well as the economy does.  My ex-boss said that his expensive MBA basically boiled down to exactly that.

I guess all that hard work in Model Thinking had greater results than I knew.  (lol.....)

I stuck around for a long time after the baby shower, talking to various people, and headed home just after 5:00.

Walking north on Fourth Ave., looking north at the library and Tower Plaza.

I could have caught the bus (half a block north of the place I stood to snap the library), but I'd have had to wait 10 minutes.  I decided to just walk.

I wasn't sorry I walked -- look at the sky!

Heading west on Washington, standing beside the Huron/First/Washington/Ashley parking lot, looking northwest.  Kinda cool, looking right through the two windows in the corner of the building!

Looking southwest (the building in the lower right corner is the same building, other end, as the building in the pic above).

Looking south, over the top of an incipient apartment building.  I am not glad they are building all of these new tall buildings to block my view of the sky!  Humph!  I am convinced they are busily turning Ann Arbor into something no one wants......

Walking west, up Washington.  The sky!

I really don't like all this mess in my pic, but the sky!

About 20 minutes later -- home, and walking Willard.  This is about what I remember seeing, but the camera remembered darkness, with just a hint of color......  Luckily, Photoshop Elements and I can make it closer to what I remember.


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